Farm Bankruptcies and Rising Costs Are Turning Rural Voters Against Trump

Rural Americans have long been among President Donald Trump's most reliable supporters, delivering the wide margins in small towns and farming communities that helped power two presidential victories. But a new national poll suggests that bond is under serious strain — and the reasons are rooted firmly in the economics of everyday farm life.

A Fox News poll released this week shows that Trump's approval rating among rural voters has turned negative for the first time since early 2025. His net approval — the gap between those who approve and those who disapprove — has swung a dramatic 34 points in just over a year, dropping from +20 in early 2025 to -14 in May 2026. Among rural white voters specifically, the slide is nearly as steep, falling 33 points from +27 to -6 over the same period.

The poll, conducted May 15–18 among 1,002 registered voters nationwide, was jointly run by Beacon Research, a Democratic-aligned firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican-aligned firm. Voters were contacted by landline, cellphone, and text-to-web online survey, drawn randomly from a national voter file. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

What the Numbers Show

Trump's overall approval rating sits at 39 percent in the poll — just one point above its lowest level in this polling series. But the more telling story is in the groups driving that decline. Rural voters, rural white voters, and even Republicans are showing signs of softening support, with each group hitting its lowest point in the series.

On the economy — arguably the issue voters care about most — the numbers are stark. Just 29 percent of all voters approved of Trump's handling of economic conditions, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters tracked almost identically: 30 percent approved, 70 percent disapproved.

Inflation was the single weakest issue for Trump in the poll. Only 24 percent of all voters approved of his handling of rising prices, while 76 percent disapproved. Among rural voters, 28 percent approved and 71 percent disapproved — numbers that reflect how acutely cost pressures are being felt in agricultural communities.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the survey alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, acknowledged that the erosion is spreading beyond traditional skeptics of the president.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit. Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Even on issues where Trump has historically run strong, the numbers are tightening. Border security, for example, now sits at 49 percent approval to 51 percent disapproval overall — the first time it has slipped into net negative territory during this term. Rural voters still lean toward approval on that issue at 54–45, but the margin is narrower than it once was.

The Farm Crisis Behind the Numbers

To understand why rural voters are shifting, it helps to look at what is happening on the ground in farming communities across the country.

Farm bankruptcies rose 46 percent in 2025 compared to the prior year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That surge reflects a combination of mounting debt, thinning profit margins, and rapidly rising costs for the inputs farmers depend on — seeds, fuel, and fertilizer chief among them.

Those pressures have only intensified in 2026. The escalation of conflict with Iran has pushed fertilizer and diesel prices higher, squeezing farm operations that were already running on narrow margins.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the situation plainly in comments to MS Now, explaining that his family has had to cut back on fertilizer use because of the financial pressure.

"We're not financially able to operate as normal."

Nelson added that his multigenerational farm is now facing the prospect of bankruptcy.

"It's tough, you know, very tough on us."

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder offered a similar account in comments shared by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report, putting specific dollar figures to the challenge.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors. I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Trade dynamics have added to the difficulty. Reduced Chinese demand for American agricultural exports — soybeans in particular — has weakened prices and left many producers without reliable overseas markets they had come to count on.

Adding to farmer frustration, Trump drew criticism during a recent trip to Beijing when he defended Chinese purchases of U.S. farmland, arguing that restricting foreign ownership would lower land values. The comments unsettled many rural Americans who are already wary of foreign control over agricultural property.

What the White House Is Saying

Administration officials disputed the significance of the poll results, framing them as a temporary snapshot rather than a meaningful trend.

White House spokesman Kush Desai argued that the economy has remained strong under Trump's leadership and pointed to ongoing legislative efforts on healthcare and housing costs as reasons for optimism.

"As this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term."

Spokesman Davis Ingle pointed to Trump's 2024 electoral performance as a more meaningful benchmark than any single poll.

"The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."

Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and described current progress as "just the beginning" of what the president's agenda will deliver.

For rural voters watching those promises from the seat of a tractor or across a kitchen table covered in overdue bills, however, the gap between Washington's assurances and their daily financial reality appears to be growing — and the polls are starting to reflect it.